Gross alpha
—must reach 2.50% of turnoverCan our model profit at Gold?
One BTC paper order every window. No selective skipping.
● CONNECTING
Answer right now
NOT PROVEN YET
Waiting for the first real-book paper result.
No real orders. The model is frozen. Each result includes walked depth, one adverse cent, the taker fee, and Gold's 18% rebate.
Net at Gold
$0.00after 82% of taker feesSettled windows
0 / 1,000exactly one order per windowForward days
0 / 5need at least 4 positive daysThe frozen every-window rule
1 · AT 60 SECONDSUse only spot and market data already visible at the checkpoint.
2 · PRICE BOTH SIDESWalk actual Up and Down asks for the minimum lot, then add 1¢.
3 · ALWAYS CHOOSEPick the side with higher model value after its taker fee. Never skip.
4 · HOLD TO RESULTSettle against Polymarket's winner and record gross, fee, rebate, and net.
What “pass” means
Gold break-even2.263% gross
Our safety target≥ 2.500% gross
Statistical evidencet ≥ 2.0
Book-data coverage≥ 99%
If it passes, climb only to Gold
At the 2.50% target, a 30-day climb from no tier to Gold projects approximately +$188 including level-up bonuses.
No tier$00% fee rebate
Bronze$2k wV3% rebate · $10 bonus
Silver$20k wV8% rebate · $50 bonus
Gold target$200k wV18% rebate · $250 bonus
Latest window decisions
Every usable window must show a paper buy. A missing decision reduces coverage.
| Time | Side | Model P(Up) | Paper price | Expected edge | Winner | Gold-net P&L |
|---|
Waiting for the next 60-second checkpoint…
Network health
Kraken feed lag—
Binance feed lag—
Polymarket feed lag—